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  • Millions of homes could hit the market.

Millions of homes could hit the market.

Plus: apartment demand nearly catches supply, Gen Z crosses state lines, and buyers bring AI research to their agents.

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ZERO FLUX08 OCT 2026 / 5 MIN
TODAY'S MAIN SIGNALS
1Home sellers are cutting asking prices more often.
2Renters are filling nearly as many apartments as builders finish.
3Senior housing supply is falling behind middle-income demand.
4Mortgage refinancing no longer makes sense for most homeowners.
RATES
30-YR FIXED
7.59%
CHANGE FROM PRIOR IN BIPS
1D +3   1W -1   1M +70   1Y +121
10-YR UST
5.280%
CHANGE FROM PRIOR IN BIPS
1D +1   1W +2   1M +48   1Y +114
SOFR
3.90%
CHANGE FROM PRIOR IN BIPS
1D +1   1W 0   1M +26   1Y -25
MARKET SIGNALSFREE
COMMERCIALLINK
Older adults value senior living, but two fears hold them back
-Older adults see senior living's practical value, but concerns about quality of life and trust hold them back. Although 54% say it can meet practical needs, only 34% are highly confident it will preserve their independence and privacy.
-State inspection records would increase confidence for 47%, while 43% want private conversations with residents or their families.
RESIDENTIALLINK
Refinance demand has been cut in half as rates climb again
-Refinance applications fell 56% from a year ago as the average conforming 30-year rate returned to 7.49%. Most homeowners have little financial reason to replace their existing loan.
-Adjustable-rate mortgages now account for 10.3% of applications as borrowers look for lower payments.
RESIDENTIALLINK
Nearly 1 in 4 Gen Z adults moved states. Where did they go?
Map of the states with the largest net gains in Gen Z adults
Source: LendingTree
-South Carolina gained 22,843 more Gen Z residents than it lost in 2024, followed by Missouri with 14,063 and Washington, DC, with 13,905.
-Affordability appears to be reshaping young adults' housing demand. Lower-cost states gained residents, while California, New Jersey, and Illinois posted the largest net losses.
RESIDENTIALLINK
Where are sellers cutting home prices most?
-Denver, CO, leads with price cuts on 30.9% of active listings, followed by Indianapolis, IN, at 29.9% and San Antonio, TX, at 26.8%.
-With mortgage rates above 7%, sellers are lowering their expectations. Nationally, 21% of active listings have cut prices, the highest share for this time of year since Redfin began tracking in 2022.

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RESIDENTIALLINK
Which South Carolina cities rank among America’s best for renters?
-Greenville, SC, ranked 10th and Charleston, SC, ranked 11th among America's best cities for renters. Rents were 9.5% below the national average in Greenville and 3.8% lower in Charleston.
-Columbia, SC, ranked 83rd, with its local economy score as the main drag.
THE AI LAYERAI + REAL ESTATE
Most agents say their clients now use AI to buy homesLINK
-Among surveyed agents, 78% said clients use AI for home research at least occasionally, while 23% have seen clients challenge valuations with it. Agents now need to verify AI-generated research rather than ignore it.
82% of homeowners would pay more for AI-powered securityLINK
-Among homeowners, 82% would pay more for security that can deter an intruder instead of merely recording one, creating room for higher-priced AI cameras and subscription plans.
TOOLS TO KNOW
Vivint   AI-powered home security cameras detect threats and activate lights and audible warnings to help deter intruders.
FUNDING ROUNDSPROPTECH
CubicUp, an italian home reno mgmt tech, raised €2 million, with SumaCapital leading the round.
HomeExchange, a french home-swap platform, received funding in a round led by Verlinvest.
Sela, an AI agents for mortgage sales calls, raised $21 million in Series A funding, with Costanoa leading the round.
Mojave, a HVAC systems for CRE, raised $19 million in Series B funding, with Fairtree leading the round.
Trebellar, a property mgmt tech for Offices, raised $18 million in Series A funding, with Blossom leading the round.
Dextr, an AI workforce for hotels, raised $6.7 million in seed funding, with Elevation leading the round.
THE EDGEPREMIUM
RESIDENTIALLINK
Adjustable mortgages look cheaper as fixed rates rise. Is the risk worth it?
-A 6.47% ARM on a $320,000 mortgage saves $178 a month versus a 7.30% fixed loan, putting the borrower about $11,900 ahead before the first reset.
-For owners who stay put, early savings may not justify the reset risk. In the modeled worst case, payments reach $3,023 and erase the savings in six years and nine months, short of the 11-year median seller tenure.
COMMERCIALLINK
Senior housing is running short where the middle market needs it most
-Senior housing occupancy is above 90% as a thin development pipeline limits new options. Rents are rising 4% to 5% a year, putting more pressure on middle-income seniors.
-Institutional investors are responding by teaming with experienced local operators on lower-cost active adult housing with supportive services.
COMMERCIALLINK
Apartment demand is just 13,000 units short of new supply
-Renters absorbed 304,800 apartments over the past year, just 13,200 fewer than the 318,000 completed. That was the narrowest gap between supply and demand since late 2015.
-The narrower gap pushed annual rent growth above zero for the first time since mid-2025, though excess Sun Belt supply is still holding rents down.
RESIDENTIALLINK
Berkshire’s new CEO keeps buying into U.S. homebuilders
-Under its new CEO, Berkshire nearly doubled its Lennar stake in the third quarter and now owns about 11%. It also bought Taylor Morrison and a smaller South Carolina builder through Clayton Properties.
-The purchases deepen Berkshire's bet during a downturn. Lennar shares are 49.7% below their October 2024 high, and its average sale price is 24.2% below its 2022 peak.
RESIDENTIALLINK
The silver tsunami could solve inventory and create a demand problem
-If older owners list 45% of the homes projected to turn over in 2027, inventory could return to pre-pandemic levels. In total, 13.9 million homes are projected to change hands through 2036.
-Projected annual turnover equals 67.2% of recent large-home listings but only 3.2% of starter-home listings. That imbalance could weaken demand for larger homes while starter-home supply stays tight.
UNREAL REAL ESTATE
An 1824 Maine Mansion With a Time Capsule Kitchen
An 1824 Maine Mansion With a Time Capsule Kitchen
This 1824 riverfront mansion in Waldoboro, ME, is listed for $489,000 and retains a striking 1940s kitchen, dining room, and bathrooms. LINK

 

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